As the readers of this blog know, we have been analysing Italy’s “silent mega-minority” for quite a long time. Italy, a Western democracy with a political scene largely dominated by old leaders, is not immune to the wave of mass discontent vis-à-vis politics in the Western world. Discontent is not an isolated episode, but a dominating trend. Hence, understanding the contours of Italy’s “indignados” bloc is not just an intriguing exercise, but an indispensable one.
Most analysts focus on the M5S movement to explain the growing appeal of anti-establishment politics, and to explore possible parliamentary and government combinations (“what if”?). Moreover, as the dust is settling down, the PD’s leadership is cautiously trying to sound out Grillo, leader of M5S, about an entente cordiale. While this may be understandable, we believe that observers are widely underestimating the size of Italy’s indignados. In fact, after the elections the “silent mega-minority” is no longer silent, and no minority, either. As a simple maths exercise shows, indignados represent 45-46% of the overall population with voting rights: this figure is the combination of M5S voters, voters who did not show up at polls as well as blank votes. To make a long story short: Grillo is just the tip of an iceberg.
Since the rise of indignados is reaching unprecedented levels, this will inevitably affect politics. How will the book play out? In the short term, old parties will try to strike a deal that buys them some extra-time. To survive in the longer run, old parties will have to adapt to the growing calls for renewal. But politics is ultimately about power – and power preservation – and history shows us that the apparatchiks of the “old guard” often prefer to defend their privileges and indulge in rent-seeking tactics rather than pursuing far reaching transformation strategies.
