After the European elections, the head of state, President Giorgio Napolitano, may
want to discretely begin the process of choosing his successor, whom he may prefer to have chosen by the current Parliament.
In fact, from Napolitano’s standpoint, the current Parliament is the typical “devil you know”, whereas a new Parliament would be unchartered territory.
More specifically, if Renzi performs well, Napolitano could offer him snap elections in exchange for parliamentary support in electing a presidential candidate close to Napolitano (Giuliano Amato? Mario Draghi?). For Renzi, this would in any case not mean a “back to square one” case, as it would entail the possibility to have new MPs personally handpicked by Renzi in lieu of the current ones elected in 2013 and chosen by Bersani.
Even if Renzi performs badly and the M5S thrive, having the head of State’s successor voted by the current parliament would be the lesser evil from Giorgio Napolitano’s
standpoint.
If any of the above scenarios takes place and the Renzi-Berlusconi pact ends, then the presidential succession becomes a top priority – more than the financial stability bill in Q4 2014 or Italy’s EU Presidency – and it could take place in Q4 2014/Q1 2015.
