“[Italian prime minister] Conte must remain in the political arena. He is newer and fresher than the ruling class that surrounds him. I’m positive that he wouldn’t want to form his own party, but rather lead a competitive coalition to defeat the right.” Here’s a ground-breaking thought from a key figure of the co-ruling Democratic Party, Goffredo Bettini, as appeared on Italian daily La Stampa.
Mr. Bettini is a seasoned politician who proved instrumental in the creation of the current coalition government, led by Mr. Conte, composed by centre-left democrats like himself and members of the anti-establishment (and now seemingly less vocal) Five Star Movement, plus a few minor parties.
In the wake of the historic European deal on the recovery fund, which will grant Italy €209 billion, there is a chance that this government might properly coalesce around its leader and attempt to bring about deep, meaningful changes to the “sick man of Europe”, as Italy is sometimes referred to.
“[Mr.] Conte, the government and even the Democratic Party have been greatly strengthened by this common result. The frenzies [inside the government] are destined to remain marginal. [Mr.] Conte will lead Italy until the end of the parliamentary term. It’s only natural that if the alliance between the Democratic Party and the Five Star achieves good results, it may become a longstanding political agreement. That’s why I’m sorry that in some regions we’re not be running jointly for elections,” said Mr. Bettini.
The latter matter is symptomatic of the uneasiness that still lingers among the two parties, once sworn enemies. Their odd alliance, which is almost a year old, was born to counteract the assertive leader of the current opposition and head of the right-wing League, Matteo Salvini.
Mr. Salvini, who had allied with the Five Star to form the last administration and had amassed an astounding amount of popularity, attempted to overthrow that government by breaking away from his allies and calling for early elections in a bid to form his own right-wing parliamentary majority.
When this happened, the garrulous Five Star did the unthinkable: they dropped the League and went on to form a coalition government with the once-hated “establishment”, the Democratic Party. Of course, this alliance was born out of necessity – they could not allow elections to happen, or else the League and its allies would have swept the floor with them.
Right now, the right-wing coalition – which includes Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Itay and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – is riding high on consensus. If votes were held today, they would be projected to garner an absolute majority according to polls.
The “frenzies” Mr. Bettini was referring to are matters that risk wreaking irreparable damage to the government – which is exactly what the right-wing coalition is hoping for. Disagreements range from running together in regional elections (some of which are to be held in Autumn), to how to spend the recovery fund money, to whether or not to accept the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) fund, over which the two parties are firmly opposed.
Mr. Conte has been deferring the decision on the ESM so as to not test the limits of his majority, but sooner or later (probably come Autumn) he will have to decide. His leadership, however, seems effective, and his management of Italy’s lockdown made him the most popular politician in Italy. The recent Brussels deal, which he is marketing as a major win for Italians, is set to further raise his stature.
Some have speculated that Mr. Conte could eventually turn his consensus into a new moderate party, but he seems reluctant. He has however declared time and time again that this government will arrive at the end of its mandate, which includes the election of Italy’s next president.
The Democrat Claudio Mancini told Formiche.net that Mr. Conte is “building his credibility and his strength through [Italy’s] relationship with Europe. The Democratic Party and the Five Star are converging precisely on the grounds of popular Europeanism. […] A stable alliance is being outlined.”
“This is how the curtain is lowered on the history of the Italian left” quipped sociologist Massimiliano Panarari, who thinks that Mr. Bettini, whom he deems a “fine strategist and profound theorist” of the current majority, is ready to ferry the Democrats towards a new strategic alliance.
Mr. Bettini knows full well that populism has been essential to Italian parties since the nineties, when the traditional party system was dismantled, argues Mr. Panarari. Therefore, betting on reformist PMs (as the Democrats have repeatedly done for years) does not pay anymore; the very fact that they allowed Mr. Conte, the “safe” option, to become PM hints at the reassessment period they’re undergoing.
The populist Five Star Movement, born a decade ago, has proven its adaptability as well as its ability to shift alliances. Mr. Panarari thinks that this, combined with the Democratic realignment, can easily lead to the two parties’ fusion into something new, based on realpolitik. That is what Mr. Bettini, the Democrat “grey eminence”, has in mind, he said.
According to Mr. Panarari, the obstacles to this master plan are to be found in the smaller reformist groups within the Democratic Party and in those among the Five Star who are either maintaining their original Chavist-like hard-line or nostalgic of their previous right-wing allies. Other than that, the road seems clear: the Autumn regional elections will be the real test.
As Mr. Bettini himself acknowledged, Mr. Conte has proven to be a cunning political navigator. Faced with an impasse over the ESM, the mighty task of deciding how to spend the recovery fund’s money, and the growing threat of right-wing parties, times are ripe for him to prove his mettle.
