This coming Sunday and Monday the Italians will head to the polls to vote in a referendum on slashing the number of MPs. Seven regions out of twenty will also vote their new regional presidents and their councils. But there might be more to it, given that these events can potentially be game-changers, capable of shaking up the current Italian government.
The referendum entails slashing the number of deputati (Chamber of Deputies MPs) from 630 to 400, and senatori (Senate MPs) from 315 to 200. Today, the Italian MP-to-population rate is roughly 1 to 100,000, which is higher than other large European nations (roughly 0.9 in Germany and France, 0.8 in Spain). If the referendum is passed, that number would become 0.7, the lowest in Europe.
Those in favour point to increased efficiency and less waste of resources in parliament, critics highlight the diminished representation and the lack of an overarching plan towards actual efficiency (since both chambers must agree on a law before it’s passed, either way). The MP cut has been attempted and failed several times in the history of the Italian Republic; but this time around it’s projected to pass.
The governing coalition is obviously backing the MP cut, but support within the alliance is murky. The Five Star Movement (5SM), senior governing partners, are the creators and main supporters of the measure. The Democratic Party, junior partners, had to fall in line for the sake of the alliance’s unity – at the expense of the party’s unity, because a rift has grown between those against the cut (whom are many) and those in favour.
Meanwhile, the centre-right alliance leading the opposition is all but compact: the three leaders must balance the advantage of a clearly popular measure, and the damage that could be dealt to the already frail governing coalition, should the referendum not pass. The centre-right is leading in the polls and it’s also insisting on early elections, which can only happen if the current government implodes.
Opposition leader Matteo Salvini has spoken in favour of the MP cut, but his party’s second-in-command Giancarlo Giorgetti stood against it. Giorgia Meloni has backed it, but she also said that it wouldn’t be a disgrace if it was rejected. And Silvio Berlusconi didn’t explicitly pick a side, but he expressed scepticism at “populist” nature of this particular MP cut plan.
It’s impossible to judge how the referendum will affect Italian politics without also considering the regional elections, scary stuff for both governing parties. The 5SM are not expected to win anywhere, and the Dems have lost 6 out of 7 regions to the centre-right in the last two years.
Now, an additional seven regions are up for grabs. The centre-right is almost certainly going to win at least three of them and has a solid chance of gaining five. Long story short: the centre right is en route to govern over three-fourths of Italy’s 20 regions.
More still: even if the referendum and the regional elections do not spell significant electoral damage for the governing coalition, there are some time-sensitive key issues that undermine its internal stability. Also, rumours of a shake-up of the current ministers’ positions have been running wildly. Prime minister Giuseppe Conte has sought to quell those on live TV, with limited success (although there seems to be little evidence that the shake-up might happen; it could be that these rumours are being weaponised to sow more discord).
To sum it up: the governing coalition is divided and could be lacerated. The results of the referendum might weaken it, those of the regional elections most likely will. The centre-right opposition is set to gain the most, both in terms of regions and popularity, adding pressure onto the government. There you have it: a possible perfect storm that could spell the end of the current coalition government.
