The League leader is walking a moderation path, and some believe his party is close to entering the European People’s Party
On Wednesday the European Popular Party (EPP), the single biggest political entity in the European Parliament (EP), voted to change its internal rules of procedure to allow for the suspension of an entire party with a simple majority vote.
They did so knowingly, as the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had been repeatedly criticised by other EPP members. The fundamentally illiberal and anti-European policies pushed forward by his party, Fidesz, has come under intense pressure in the past years. Matter of fact, the party had been side-lined in recent leader assemblies.
Mr Orbán had previously declared that if the new rules were approved, he would have walked away. Which is exactly what happened: when 148 voted in favour, 28 against and 4 abstained, the Hungarian PM announced the withdrawal of all 11 Fidesz MEPs from the EPP before the latter had a chance to kick them out. He also described the rule change as a “clearly hostile move.”
Crucially, their defection leaves the door open for another party to enter the EPP: Matteo Salvini’s League, Italy’s most popular political force according to polling numbers. The Italian leader has recently reconsidered his historical hard-right, anti-European stances to enter a new government led by former ECB head Mario Draghi. Thus, the party is looking at the EPP as a way to polish its European credentials and credibility.
The question is whether the EPP will open their arms to the League, buying into its moderate EU-turn narrative. A European official told Formiche.net that “a Salvini-Orbán turnover is in the natural course of events,” and that the move has been in the works for more than a year. The League’s second-in-command, Giancarlo Giorgetti, is also extremely favourable.
Time and again, the EPP’s group leader Manfred Weber and its President Donald Tusk have publicly stated that this prospect is not workable for the time being. Not only was the League propelled to consensus in past years by its populist, anti-Europe rhetoric, but the party’s most unsavoury edges had landed it in another EP group, Identity and Democracy (ID), which is also inhabited by hyper-nationalistic groups such as Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen’s National Front (RN).
Crucially, AfD is the internal rival of Mr Weber’s Christian Social Union (CSU/CDU). And Mr Salvini and his acolytes have spent years ripping into the latters and their former leader, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as perceived members of a country-stifling European élite, alongside Mr Orbán.
He also did not miss the chance to express “friendship and closeness to the Hungarian people” on Wednesday, in the hours following Fidesz’ withdrawal from the EPP, according to Adnkronos.
Furthermore, the League leader’s EU-turn caused discontented Italian supporters to flock to Giorgia Meloni’s party, which is now officially more to the right than his own. Thus, Mr Salvini might be tempted to backtrack on some of his most moderate shifts, so as to limit the loss if voters. His message
According to some commentators, however, the plan has already been written, and it also took into account the expulsion of Fidesz. The League is already putting some distance between itself and ID, and pundits expect it to eventually leave the group, spend some time in “purgatory” (among the EP unaffiliated) and only then make its bid to enter the EPP.
It remains to be seen whether Mr Salvini’s moderate conversion will stand the test of time. If it doesn’t, he might take it out on his more moderate lieutenants (chief among which is Mr Giorgetti) and revert to his nationalist agenda. And the EPP’s acceptance, as discussed, is far from granted.
