On Wednesday, when prime minister Giuseppe Conte finally returned from Brussels after securing €209 billion to aid Italy’s economic recovery, senators from the governing majority greeted him with a long applause.
Mr. Conte declared that “the EU has lived up to its history,” praised his majority and members of the oppositions alike, and underlined that it fell upon Italy to demonstrate responsibility in using the unprecedentedly hefty funds – and in outlining the country’s future in the process.
But overseeing the fund’s redistribution is exactly where reality is set to kick in. Mr. Conte oversees a frail coalition government, born out of necessity and strained by mutual incomprehension. On top of that, he has been accused of overriding parliament by governing by decree during the pandemic. These accusations come from members of his own government as well as the opposition.
As the recovery fund’s impact is potentially bigger than that of the Marshall Fund, this really is a watershed moment in Italian politics. Decision makers have just been handed a powerful instrument to outline the country’s future and reform its mechanisms (in line with the loan’s conditions) after years of significantly subpar economic growth, currently the lowest in Europe.
Roberto Fico, leader of the lower chamber of parliament and key figure within the Five Star, stressed the importance of the legislative branch in the upcoming decision-making process: “I am convinced that we’re now facing a momentous challenge, and we must rise up to it – both the government and parliament.”
He also delivered a thinly veiled jab by saying that “the Italians’ first task force is parliament,” a critique of the prime minister’s purported idea of setting up yet another technocratic task force to determine the fate of the fund – something that has made many MPs feel like they were being superseded at such an important juncture for the country.
Overseeing the destination of the recovery fund is likely to prove a struggle for the two souls of the governing majority – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the centre-left Democratic Party – as the one-year milestone of their government’s survival approaches.
Once sworn enemies, the two main parties are now debating whether to run together in the regional elections to be held this autumn – something they managed to do for one region only, and not without tensions. They are also discussing a reform of the electoral law that would lift the threshold to 5% and cut out smaller parties, some of which are most likely interfering with this process.
Despite these talks, the two sides maintain vastly different views on a host of issues, chief of which is the European Recovery Mechanism (ESM). The recent events have rekindled the debate over whether to accept the €36 billion credit line intended for health expenditures, which has been dividing the governing partners so much, that their coalition risks exploding should Mr. Conte take a definitive stance (he still hasn’t).
While the Five Star are fearful of the condition that come with the fund, the Dems insist that it would be far more convenient to accept it. The opposition forces side with the Five Star with the exception of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. Meanwhile, Mr. Conte is trying to defuse the situation by hinting that the deluge of European money he just obtained will make recurring to the ESM useless.
“We already have resources allocated to health services, and we need to spend them. Issuing more debt is superfluous, especially given that we don’t even know if the pandemic will upsurge again,” told us Five Star’s Mario Turco, undersecretary to the prime minister, with regards to the ESM.
Over to the other side, the Democrat Stefano Ceccanti outlined to Formiche.net the need to accept the ESM in September, stressing how the only condition associated with it is that of spending the money on health services. “If we can manage to clarify what the concrete expenditure plan is, that would greatly help to de-ideologise the matter,” he quipped.
The centre-right coalition currently at the opposition is leading in polls – part of the reason why the two governing parties are considering running together in regional elections, even if, ideally, they’d rather not.
Meanwhile, Mr. Conte is wary of testing the limits of his coalition while he attempts to deliver significant results – a skill that’s now needed more than ever. The next few months will provide a picture of how he intends to do that.
