Russia, China, Iran. Biden’s 100-days turn

Three months into office, the center of gravity for U.S. President Joe Biden’s presidency has mostly remained on the pandemic and economic response at home, even as he set the framework for a new U.S. foreign policy in speeches and initial foreign policy decisions.

During the past month, Biden started to make some moves on the international scene that offered clear signs of what his priorities are in global affairs.  On China, Iran, transatlantic relations, and climate change, putting diplomacy first is the common theme in the big moves that the Biden team took on foreign policy just as the first 100 days in office comes to a close.  Looking ahead to the next 100 days in office this spring and summer, potential real-world security challenges continue to simmer that could affect Biden’s attempt at a foreign policy reset.

U.S.-China relations

The main event in global politics remains the U.S.-China relationship.  The Alaska summit in March appeared frosty at the outset, but the conversation continued without the press and reportedly became more pragmatic.  The two countries remain at odds on many fronts, including regional security, cybersecurity, and economic issues, but U.S. climate envoy John Kerry secured a new bilateral agreement to work together on climate change on the eve of a major climate summit the Biden administration is holding this week.

Outreach to allies in Asia and Europe

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken traveled to Asia and Europe to meet with close U.S. allies and discuss a framework for diplomatic cooperation on a range of issues – and there is no shortage of challenges in trying to back on the same page and closer to strategic alignment with partners in both regions.  In Europe, despite the new, more cooperative tone coming from Washington, there are many unanswered, open questions about where the United States is ultimately going on Russia, Nord Stream 2, global economic coordination, and technology and taxation policy.

Renewed diplomacy on Iran

International talks aimed at salvaging the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement began in Vienna as well, a priority for the Biden administration and one that will also represent an opportunity and challenge for coordinating with other global powers.  But the fact that U.S. diplomats are back at the table trying to play a constructive diplomatic role is an important sign.  The attack on the Iranian nuclear facility in early April, along with a regular stream of attacks and security incidents across the Middle East, serve as a reminder of how quickly events in the real world could affect this “diplomacy first” approach of the Biden team.

Diplomatic implications of Biden’s Afghanistan decision

President Biden’s decision to pull all U.S. troops out by early September of this year sparked a heated debate in the United States, with some raising valid concerns about the possible security threats that could emerge from the decision.  A repeat of what happened in Iraq in 2012-2014 after all U.S. troops departed at the end of 2011 was a concern raised by many.  The most interesting things to watch in the coming weeks are how this decision to withdraw impacts the ongoing diplomacy to move forward with an inclusive political settlement in that country, and whether the poor security situation on the ground will affect that diplomacy to bring the Afghan government and Taliban together.

Looking ahead to the next phase of Biden’s foreign policy, there are several big picture challenges ahead.

The long haul of the COVID-19 crisis

First, the COVID-19 pandemic remains a major challenge for many countries around the world, even as vaccination accelerates in some key countries including the United States.  Biden’s appointment of Gayle Smith to lead U.S. vaccine diplomacy is an important, somewhat overlooked move given the stakes in taming the virus globally, and global watchers should watch carefully what America plans to do on the vaccination front in the coming months, with a surplus of vaccines projected for America in a few months.

Global economic policy

The Biden administration has made linking U.S. foreign policy to America’s economic renewal at home a key part of its new tone with the slogan “a foreign policy for the middle class,” but it still hasn’t sorted out the details of what a lot of that means.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen offered a broad framework of what America’s global economic engagement will look like in an April 5^th speech and included the proposal of a global minimum tax on corporations.  The world continues to see diverging fortunes on both the pandemic and economic fronts, and how the post-COVID-19 recovery period is shaped depends on global economic cooperation on many levels.  A key member of the Biden team, the new U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai, will play an important role in setting this agenda around the world, particularly with China.

Looming potential for security crises

Beyond the pandemic and global economic concerns, there are a number of simmering tensions that could quickly heat up.  Russia has massed more troops near Ukraine, and China continues to threaten Taiwan and engage in assertive diplomacy around the world.  At any moment, an unexpected challenge could emerge in places like North Korea, the place that Biden called the top priority for U.S. foreign policy in his first presidential press conference last month.

The Biden team has started to implement its “diplomacy first” approach to the world, and it has two big advantages at this early stage of the game.  First, on the home front, it is getting high marks from Democratic and Republican voters alike for its pandemic and economic responses.   Also, the Republican party is in disarray on foreign policy and today is sharply divided, and that lack of unity makes them less of a factor, even with tight partisan margins in Congress.

The second big advantage is the Biden team’s experience and knowledge of the world.  When it comes to foreign policy, Biden is one of the most experienced and knowledgeable U.S. presidents in recent years, given his past record as a former vice president and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  He also continues to assemble a foreign policy team with a very deep bench.

But in a world in flux, a lot of things could happen.  The boxer Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”   The Biden team has set a new tone and started to implement a new game plan for U.S. foreign policy that has placed it on a more stable foundation than it was in the four years of Trump.  But as it implements its vision, the world will respond, and that’s when things will get interesting.