It seems Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has reached the natural end of his career at the top, despite the insistence of the parties that support him. All bets are on for the choice of the next PM, and we have a couple ideas…
The Italian government officially collapsed on Tuesday, but resigning Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is still trying to woo centrist MPs to shore up a new parliamentary majority. That strategy, however, seems to have failed.
This has been Mr Conte’s line ever since former PM Matteo Renzi opened the government crisis by withdrawing his MPs from the majority. Since he still enjoys the support of the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party (the two major forces in the just-deceased governing majority) he has been calling for “responsible” MPs to join in for nearly three weeks.
Still, on Thursday it became clear enough that the group of “responsible” MPs is not stable enough – and even if it were, it would be too small to reach an absolute majority. Therefore, the chances that President Sergio Mattarella will support Mr Conte in his desperate search are very slim.
On Friday afternoon, the President will have concluded his rounds of talks with all parliamentary forces. Supposedly, each one of them will have indicated their preferred way forward, so it will be up to him to attempt the solution that he will deem more effective in closing this crisis as soon as possible.
The 5SM and the Dems have stated that it’s either Mr Conte or fresh elections. The opposition leaders have been calling for fresh elections, to be held in April, knowing that their centre-right coalition would perform extremely well (roughly 48%, if surveys are to be trusted).
Mr Conte himself is pushing for this, too – surveys have him at 17% if he were to create his own party – and Nicola Zingaretti, Democratic leader, is also in favour – his could be a risky, yet well-calculated, bet.
However, there are also those who would rather avoid the polls (especially among the 5SM, who would most likely see their numbers decimated). Matter of fact, some high-level members of the Dems have even declared themselves open to accepting a new PM with a new majority.
Mr Renzi, whose small party could become the kingmaker in case elections are avoided, is pushing to do away with Mr Conte – whom he deems inadequate – and build a technocratic government, one led by neutral, outsider experts, that could appeal to the centre-right forces.
To the surprise of many, Matteo Salvini (leader of the opposition and of the League, which is currently Italy’s most popular party) said on Wednesday that he would consider the latter option. This is a U-turn compared to his previous declarations and paves the way for a future government of broad alliances.
The centre-right coalition also counts Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – he has already spoken in support of the technocratic solution – and a few small moderate forces. Additionally, another couple of marginal centrist parties could definitely get behind an authoritative “technician.”
There you have it, then: the most probable solution. But much will depend on the name of the “technician” PM. The names of Carlo Cottarelli, Mario Draghi and Enrico Giovannini – all expert economists – have been floated, as well as Marta Cartabia’s, the former President of Italy’s Constitutional Court.
However, the anti-elite 5SM could have a real, unsurpassable problem with such a figure. They would much prefer an institutional name from the current majority, such as House Speaker Roberto Fico. Dems would also be more digestible to them, and Dario Franceschini – minister of culture – or Lorenzo Guerini – defence minister – would be suitable for the role.
Alternatively, the saviour could hail from Brussels in the form of Paolo Gentiloni, former Democratic PM and current European Commissioner for the Economy. What’s nearly certain is that Giuseppe Conte’s name, though invoked, is barely more than a ghost in the Roman halls.
