It’s been a rocky ride – to put it mildly – for the leader of the opposition and the right-wing League, Matteo Salvini. Until August last year, he was deputy prime minister and interior minister. His party, the League, had reached a stellar amount of consensus, polling at 38% after it had been favoured by only 17% of Italians during elections. His conservative, populist and anti-migrant campaign seemed all but unstoppable.

Then, in August 2019, Mr. Salvini withdrew his support for the government he himself had formed in 2018 with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. He was hoping to force early elections and turn his consensus into a parliamentary majority, thus achieving “full powers”; but his plan was short-lived. The Five Star allied with their sworn enemies, the Democratic Party, and prime minister Giuseppe Conte, who had resigned following Mr. Salvini’s stunt, was sworn in for a second mandate to guide this new alliance.

Mr. Salvini is now leading the opposition as well as the centre-right coalition formed by his League, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. According to polls, this coalition holds a relative majority among voters and would probably end up governing, should Italians vote now; but they are not scheduled to do so until 2023.

Meanwhile, a string of scandals and mishaps have been catching up with Mr. Salvini and his party. The disputed issues include alleged illicit Russian funding, corruption, and human rights abuses. While the first matter is still being investigated and the second has been somewhat settled (the League will pay back the €49 million it owes to the State in yearly payments until 2094), the third is back in the spotlight.

During his time in government, Mr. Salvini was the architect of controversial security laws targeting NGOs at sea as well as the regularisation of migrants and asylum seekers. This coming Thursday, July 30^th, parliament is set to vote on whether to authorise the process against him for not allowing 164 rescued migrants (including minors) to disembark from a ship operated by Spanish NGO Open Arms. Two similar processes have been voted down in the past, but this time, the odds seem to be against Mr. Salvini.

Additionally, the League is under scrutiny for actions taken in Lombardy at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy. The region’s governor Attilio Fontana has recently been accused of favouring a firm partly owned by his wife and brother-in-law by entrusting it with a contract for medical supplies, and subsequently masking the affair as a donation (Mr. Fontana rejects these accusations).

Moreover, many have criticised the League’s regional governance as it was allegedly responsible for the creation of Covid-19 hotspots by allowing infected patients into elderly nursing homes. This matter is being investigated, too.

Mr. Salvini’s leadership, both within the centre-right coalition and the League, is also being questioned as of late. There are rumours of discontent amidst League members, which have never failed to support their leader; however, moderates such as second-in-command Giancarlo Giorgetti have distanced themselves from some of his positions.

Meanwhile, his two allies are gaining more traction at the expense of the centre-right coalition’s compactness. Both Ms. Meloni and Mr. Berlusconi have spoken favourably about the recently approved European recovery fund, which granted Italy €209 billion to resurrect its suffering economy. Mr. Salvini instead remains highly critical; he recently called the aid package a “super scam” because of the conditions it carries.

Ms. Meloni’s party recently polled at 18%, its highest-ever result. Analysts have said that this is the consequence of an increasing number of League voters jumping ship and supporting Ms. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, which is perceived to be more assertive on right-wing issues and more pragmatic than the League and its leader.

Moreover, Mr. Berlusconi is enjoying a sort of comeback after apparently having sunk into political irrelevance. His party broke ranks with his centre-right allies and sided with the Democratic Party in calling for Italy’s acceptance of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) fund, a hotly-debated issue that has been dividing parliament.

As things stand, it seems like Mr. Salvini’s star is fading. In reality, however, the League remains the most popular party in the nation, though the gap between it and Brothers of Italy is diminishing. Also, the human rights trial awaiting Salvini, if greenlighted, could actually end up boosting his popularity by enforcing his “politicisation of justice” narrative.

Although the government is enjoying a boost in popularity following prime minister Conte’s handling of the pandemic and role in the recovery fund deal, the governing majority is by no means united – although it could be in the future – and Mr. Salvini is capable of exploiting their divisions in his favour. More still, almost a quarter of Italians still support him. In spite of everything, he might still prove capable of achieving his objective of becoming Italy’s next prime minister.